Implied Probability

Odds Conversion

What it is

The probability that a decimal odd implies for an event occurring. If your estimate exceeds the implied probability, there is 'statistical value'. All implied probabilities sum to >100% (the excess is the house margin).

Formula

Implied Probability (%) = (1 / Odds) × 100

Real Example

Odds 2.50 → 1/2.50 = 40% | Odds 1.50 → 67%. Over 2.5 at odds 1.85 → Implied: 54.1% | If you estimate 65% → There is statistical value.

When to Use

Always calculate before any prediction; look for situations where your estimate exceeds the implied probability.

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Implied Probability — Glossary | TopData90